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Battery electric vehicle sales volumes are expected to hit 400k this year, according to a new report designed for the automotive industry.

The study, launched by cap hpi consulting, gives decision-makers a holistic view of the electric vehicle market.
The latest analysis from the cap hpi POWER UPdate identifies a significant shift in size segment in January 2024, with a considerable decline in upper-medium vehicles, from 45% to 30% of all UK BEV sales, and an increase in smaller cars, from 20% to 30%.

When comparing BEV and full-market registrations by segment, the January data shows the first signs of the new BEV market normalising, with BEV registration shares starting to align with the overall market.

Matt Freeman, Managing Consultant, at cap hpi consulting, said: “As the BEV market continues to evolve, it’s essential to keep up to date with the developments. A wide range of factors influence the adoption of this new technology, from pricing and residual values to the roll-out of charging infrastructure and taxation policy. Our analysis aims to keep the industry informed every quarter.

“The cap hpi POWER UPdate uses up-to-the-minute data to provide tailored insight on a wide range of market shaping factors, from the new market and pricing to charging network updates,  used market and forecast insight, and SMR data. The data is invaluable in understanding the trends that are shaping our industry, and as a bespoke analysis, it can be tailored to focus on key brands and sectors.”

In 2023, Tesla continued its market domination, with 50k Teslas registered, of which 36k were Model Y. The Tesla Model 3 was facelifted at the end of 2023 and is expected to deliver a stronger performance in 2024. Tesla registrations by model variant show that many consumers opt for the ‘base’ RWD versions. MG holds second place with 30k units, of which two-thirds were MG4.

Pricing data for 2023 Q4 showed a significant uptick in average list pricing, up £3k on the previous quarter at £53k. While list prices have increased across the UK new car market, significant discounts have also been available, which may have led consumers to select more expensive models. At the same time, some more expensive BEVs are on the market, including the £330,000 Rolls-Royce Spectre.

In Q4 2023, nearly as many over £100k BEVs were registered (2,362) as BEVs priced under £30k (2,553). The market continues to grow in terms of product offer, with 480 individual models now available.

Mark Turnbull, director of OEM and consulting at cap hpi, concluded: “Overall AFV volumes are forecast to increase with continued government intervention. The AFV share is expected to exceed new petrol registrations sometime in
2024, if all technologies are considered. Meanwhile, BEV volumes for 2024 are forecast to be slightly lower – 414k versus 439k. We can expect a more diverse marketplace in the next two years, new OEMs entering the market, and model ranges continue to expand.

“Additionally, the average size of batteries has now stabilised around the 60-90kWh sector, which dominates the market, suggesting it is the optimum size for most UK drivers.”

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