Cox Automotive has predicted a 5.7% increase in new car registrations this year, driven by fleet demand and the success of new Chinese brands.

With two million new car registrations predicted, the forecast marked a 29.1% rise from a low in 2022, but still 9.8% below pre-Covid averages.

BYD alone achieved 631% year-on-year growth, with its market share now at 1.68%, outperforming long-established brands such as Citroën, Honda, and SEAT.

New entrants from China such as Jaecoo and Omoda also saw strong sales, causing concern for legacy manufacturers.

Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive, said: “Creating effective strategies to manage the changing competitive environment is crucial. 

“Effective brand partnerships will be crucial in navigating these changes.

“UK stakeholders must adapt their sourcing, logistics, and partnerships to reflect Asia’s growing influence.

“This includes preparing for reduced European supply and accommodating more diverse product standards.”

Fleets are expected to make up the majority of sales (50%), with private registrations predicted to increase by 2%, to 47% of the total.

Q1 2025 saw record-breaking electric vehicle (EV) registrations, caused by falling interest rates and a scramble to beat tax increases, but Cox warned that this may not continue in the long-term, at least not without increased fiscal support and policy decisions.

Cox predicted that the UK would fall 4% short of its EV target, ending the year with 24% of new car registrations being electric.

This gap was predicted to widen, reaching 16% by 2028.

Nothard added: “While the UK government has adjusted the ZEV mandate to reduce the financial penalties on manufacturers who don’t meet the targets, these are minor in the greater context of the current pressures on the industry.

“With the industry’s exports under threat due to tariffs, along with complications in the global supply chain and inconsistent consumer demand for EVs, much more needs to be done.”