The monthly release of UK vehicle registration figures by the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders (SMMT) tends to follow a well-worn ritual, particularly in recent times – they are accompanied by a note from SMMT CEO Mike Hawes stating that while electric vehicle sales are on the up, they are not growing fast enough and while manufacturers are constantly bringing out more and ever better product, the market needs more Government help.

As the monthly totals are released, various figures from the industry then weigh in with their take on what the results mean, with widely varying results – some based on careful analysis and experience going back several years, and conversely some taking highly flawed views of only certain parts of the figures to provide dubious evidence of trends.

So what is the true picture? Well, the results for the month of May did indeed suggest there may be just a little glimmer of hope for all those championing the switch to electric – and such hope is needed, as despite recent concessions the Government still expects zero emission vehicles to make up 28% of a manufacturer’s overall UK sales this year under the terms of its ZEV Mandate, rising to the goal of banning new combustion-engined cars from sale in 2035.

That glimmer was a rise of 25% compared to May 2024, 33% year-to-date, in battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations. This was in a market that overall was up – but only for the second month in 2025 and by just 1.6%.

Compare the current figures to those of May 2019, before the Covid pandemic, and they are some 18% lower.

Still, EV sales a third higher than the start of the year has to be good news doesn’t it? Well, yes and no.

They still comprise little more than a quarter of petrol car sales, and the fleet market is still driving that EV growth because if you run one as your company car you save a great deal of Benefit-in-Kind tax.

Private buyers have no such incentives and currently the only way to encourage EV sales to general consumers is continuing major discounting by manufacturers, striving to get close to the ZEV Mandate figures.

As Mike Hawes correctly argues, this practice will prove unsustainable before long, and even with it pure EVs still comprise just 20% of the overall market, a long way below the 28% the ZEV Mandate requires by the end of 2025.

A glance at the ‘New Car Top Ten’ strongly illustrates the problems manufacturers are facing. Not one bespoke EV features in the top model chart for either the month of May or year-to-date. Yes you can buy electric versions of the Ford Puma, Hyundai Kona and Mini Cooper, but it’s their petrol-engined siblings that continue to do the heavy lifting, all pointing to the view that private buyers still need plenty of convincing that electric is the way to go.

Phillip Nothard, insight director at data specialist Cox Automotive – and one of the most respected voices in the industry – sums up the current picture very well, seeing the uplift in May registrations as a positive signal for the automotive market and supporting Cox’s recent forecast of reaching 2 million registrations in 2025.

“However, it is important to consider what underpins this growth, particularly given the increasing influence of new entrants and the ongoing pressure on private sales,” he adds.

“Consumers continue to face economic uncertainty, and questions remain about how long the fleet sector can continue to prop up the recovery of the UK automotive market and our transition to electric transport,” Nothard says.

And what of those new entrants? The individual manufacturer data released by the SMMT shows that yes the newcomers to the market, which are almost entirely Chinese with the majority of their product affordable EVs, are indeed playing a role, but not necessarily a decisive one.

Winners and losers

The march of BYD continues unabated – the Chinese giant’s Executive Vice President, Stella Li, told Motor Trade News in March that BYD has firm aspirations to become the number one UK brand, at a time when it ranked 22nd.

So far, the brand has climbed just one place year-to-date, but in May alone it was the 18th most popular brand with its market share climbing steadily.

A year ago BYD had 0.27% of the market, today it has 1.74%, up from 1.68% in April and a mere 0.4% at the start of the year and in front of long-established brands such as Dacia and Honda. BYD’s next target is the former standard-bearer of EV, Tesla, which is at 1.76% and continuing to fall, likely as a result of the very visible actions of its boss Elon Musk rather than any dissatisfaction with the cars.

Other Chinese brands, however, such as Omoda, Jaecoo and GWM, are yet to exactly light up the sales charts, and indeed GWM, which has been in the UK longer than many might think, has actually seen its sales slip back so far this year.

The issue is not limited to Chinese brands – Smart, part of the Mercedes-Benz empire, has reinvented itself as a maker of EVs and is building an impressive model range, but not sales figures it seems, close to 30% down so far in 2025.

In general those manufacturers so far enjoying a positive 2025 are those with a model range that includes EVs, but is not dominated by them. Peugeot sales are up 34%, Renault by 20%, Skoda by 14%, Volkswagen 13%, Volvo 16%… Even Mazda, the brand that rails very publicly against all-out electrification, is enjoying growth of 35% so far this year.

All of which shows that the demand for ‘normal cars’, that you fill up rather than plug in, is still dominating the market.

Everyone, from Government to the manufacturers who have invested so much in EV development, wants to change that, but it won’t happen until private buyers can be persuaded that electric is the way to go. They won’t do that without a financial stimulus.

The manufacturers are likely unwilling and possibly unable to discount their sales any further, and such moves will anyway come back to damage the market later in the form of reduced residual values – according to Cox Automotive residual values for nearly-new EVs (those under two years old) have already plummeted from 83 to 47% this year, no doubt fuelled by discounting.

So the onus to come up with the stimulus rests with the Government. What form that might take, whether a return to the plug-in grants that proved so attractive in the early days of EVs, VAT savings on charging, or other measures, remains to be seen.

But some change needs to happen, and next week’s Spending Review by the Chancellor would be a good place to start.